Monthly View - of MAY 2010

The month of April turned out to be lack luster with extreme narrow range bound movement, no directional breakout out or momentum was seen, must have been choppiest April by far. On the upside April failed to cross 5435, while 5160 trend support level remained intact with Nifty testing low of 5162. Banking was the sector that turned bullish while technology typical correction in the Nakshatra ‘Ashwini’ has started. Important time cycle signal was generated on 8th & 15th of April.

In our Diwali file- We had mentioned that markets will remain sideways for next 6 to 8 months till May 2010,
May technical 2010 - Nifty have to cross above 5315 in the first 5 days, of the month, or else it would be considered as extreme weakness. Failure to cross 5315, would ask to reduce long positions, hedge or buy protection. Technically current scenario is showing upside potency close above 5315, quickly would open high probability of 5438 and 5550 by May 15th. While breaking below 5202 and 5160, will confirm, testing of 4950 during time zone of May 17th to 25th. Monthly Nifty close below 5100 is expected.
May second half view is bearish; series of bad aspects could put good pressure on nifty. We are expecting good monsoon this year due to Jupiter Transit in Pisces should give good rains, across India. May decline should be used as an opportunity to go long in MNC & LOCAL Pharma companies, Medical Hospital business and since our view on Natural Gas is highly bullish, so bullish on distribution & producers and expect related companies to do well.

Monthly Sector indication- positive – Chemical & Fertilizer, infra construction, Media & Pharma health sector
Turn around or bottom fishing - Communication and Real estate
Negative & TOP out pattern– Technology, Automobile & Banks – ever rise can be used as good trading shorts.
Long term investment suggested in– Electrical Power, Hotels, Power distribution companies.
Defensive strategy – Textile, after 20th Technology counters.


Broad market view – May 1st to May 10th- Sun will remain in ‘Bharni’ bullish Nakshatra, also considered good for profit booking. Gives best results and we might see momentum TOP pattern in few banking stocks. This zone is good for averaging earlier investment. Some stocks show bottom reversal for the simple reason big change of hands and pumping of strength is seen. First week of the zone is already being sent in weekly report. First 3 days that is 3rd to 6th we are expecting bullish momentum in the market with higher volatility, 7th being Navmi and Mars –Venus aspect is good for profit booking and even small short position.
Technical expectation is nifty to cross of 5450 before 15th May.
May 10th to 14th- No major aspects in the zone, Trading buy opportunity is expected in Media & Technology as both might witness selling on 11th & 12th, while strong recovery and aggressive bullish sentiment is expected on lst two days of the week.
Negative close on New moon that is on May 14th will indicate major weakness and investors should reduce investment and Traders and Speculators should take short positions across market.
The first half of May would be best for Infra- construction companies and surprise rally expected in the chemical and fertilizer stocks, the sector could give surprise move.

May 17 to 21st: Sun transit in the Kruttika will bring high friction and more volatility in banking sector, trend divergence would get confirmed. The Venus 90 with Jupiter & Saturn on 17th & 18th respectively bring some financial crisis and international levels, turmoil in currency market will have cascading global effect.
These two days might also abruptly disturb long standing partnerships, political association and disputed, sending panic wave in the market.
19th Sun 90 Neptune, Venus 90 Uranus, aspect indicate failure of a big corporate and even Death of very senior influential leaders, which can practically change value of a large corporate.
This is the most risky zone of the month, as always unless nifty break below 5165 no need to panic sell out in anticipation but do protect buy investing in puts as insurance. Monday 17th Opening will give clear idea being Tithi 4, negativity is obvious.

May 24th to 28th, Mars on last degrees is positive sign for the real estate sector, 24th to 26th could give best investment opportunity of the month. Auspicious Day of the week is 25th May after 1.30 PM. 26th second half and 27th are far better days for the bulls and good recovery can be expected, incase markets fall in previous days.
As mentioned above Nifty close below 5100 would be considered as very positive for future trend of the market.


SUN transit & Aspects of the Month:
May 1st to 10th: Sun transits in Nakshatra Bharni, ruled by benefic and kind hearted planet Venus. Bharni, give corrective rallies or it is more of reactive in nature, most important it allows exit from trapped position to bulls as well as bear operators in the market. This is materialistic position for sun with focus on enjoyment and luxuries in life. The people under influence are materialistic, greedy, and aggressive and have good commercial sense. These people face obstacles in life due to lack of depth in their thought process, tend to take decisions in haste. Another trait of people under influence is loyalty, and high ego. They won’t change opinion even after knowing that they are wrong. There is an attitude to use force and dedication to work hard to get the desired results. Sector: RAILWAY, Tax collection, Insurance Claim settlement, Event Managers and TEA companies. TEXTILE industry has good connection, and STEEL stocks would show a very smart swing reversal on important days, particularly ‘Navmuansh’ when ever strong.
Sun transit in Kruttika, May 11 to May 25th, its own sign, it is not considered as good Nakshatra the results are harsh and has tendency to give divergence, separation, people ruled are particularly high headed and hardnosed. They can be crusaders against injustice, protective of others, persistent and stubborn, but also aggressive and fiery. Major corporate disputes or family disputes leading to a break up, in to smaller companies. Ideas of hiving of business in to different entities are born under Kruttika influence and they also deliver very good results. Chemical companies including fertilizer perform better under Kruttika influence, Bomb or Explosive industry, Acids, Military Vehicles’, International trades, Mining industry, and Mechanical contractors.

Astronomical Positions of planets.
Mercury – Remains in Aries all through the month, currently retrograde position is allowing people to cross verify their earlier view, giving time to formulate strategy of next few month, as once mercury get direct post 11 May, market will become very active and give wide volatile movements. We are about to see major breakout in the month of May-2010. Correction in few stocks particularly communication is likely to continue till 11th and then small rise can be expected. ACTIVE – medium strong.

Venus: Going strong till 17th, in sign ‘TAURUS’, its own house benefitting banking sector on the whole. 12th May onwards cautious approach will turn into over confidence, Communication and Technology sector would out perform in the market, especially during falling market these two sectors would fall the least. Venus becomes weak and wealth erosion in big can be expected post 17th as soon transit in Scorpio ‘Navmuansh’ begins in Sign GEMEINI. Transit after 17th will help recovery in media stocks. VERY STRONG.

Mars – remains in Cancer till almost end of the May till 27th, but the speed is increasing now day by day, and wide volatility in the market is expected. Already post 15th the effect of Sign Leo will start reflecting in the market.
Real estate, final bottom testing before leaving sign cancer is already in process, and expected to take few stocks out of long bearish phase, some good news expected for the real estate. WEAK- but active now.

Jupiter – Transit in own sign Pisces on May 2nd would bring huge changes in various sectors, First nifty would give a break out very soon. A more detailed Jupiter effect will be posted and sent to all, in coming few days. As far monthly is concerned Media and Pharma MNC expected to do very well. Big speculators – who have not been able to make big money since past few days, may be able to make very big money in the Month of MAY.
Most important – FII inflows would increase in coming few months. VERY strong highly result oriented.
Jupiter aspect of Scorpio and Cancer will boost agricultural production and Fertilizer companies would do very well.

Saturn – Virgo, will remain in the sign and effects already discussed. 18th Venus 90 Saturn, Venus under 10th aspect of Saturn might show good value erosion or some negative news for the people working in BANKs, bigger negative news from INTEREST rates and Currency markets is expected.


Thank you,
Mahesh Gowande
Equity futurologist